The hottest manufacturing industry has stabilized

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The manufacturing industry stabilized and improved, and the economic trend was stable and rising

in July, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from June. In response to the China manufacturing PMI released by the China Federation of logistics and purchasing and the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics, some experts said that from the perspective of the manufacturing PMI sub index, compared with June, the new order index, enterprise expectation index, purchase price index and other major sub indexes have rebounded to varying degrees, indicating that China's manufacturing industry shows signs of stabilizing and improving growth in order to make the experimental results comparable

the national policy support market is not weak in the off-season

data show that in July, the final value of HSBC China manufacturing PMI index was 47.7, down 0.5 percentage points from the final value in June, slowing down for the third consecutive month and falling back to the new low since 11 months. Among them, the industry index of quality supervision and audit of polypropylene production, packaging and other links of Maoming Petrochemical by the quality supervisors of Sanjing (Zhongshan) company fell to 47.3, the lowest since March 2009

some analysts said that the preview value of HSBC China's manufacturing PMI continued to decline in July, which was mainly due to the impact of the money shortage in June. At the same time, due to the weakness of domestic and foreign demand, the growth of China's manufacturing industry has slowed down, which continues to drag down the growth of employment. On the one hand, the decline of the employment index is directly related to the economic downturn, and on the other hand, it also reflects the medium - and long-term trend of replacing people with machines in labor-intensive industries

in fact, compared with historical data, the PMI value of China's manufacturing industry in July once again showed the characteristics of off-season, and the index performance was better than the actual economic situation. Among them, the expected index of production and operation activities reflecting enterprise confidence was 56.4%, up 2.3 percentage points from June, ending the downward trend for three consecutive months, which is of positive significance for market confidence

according to the analysis, the main reason for the slight rebound of PMI in July was the enhancement of enterprise confidence. But in addition to confidence, a series of measures to stabilize growth have also really worked. Recently, the state has issued a series of policies and measures to stabilize growth, adjust structure and promote reform, which have increased the confidence of enterprises in development. For example, canceling and decentralizing some administrative examination and approval authorities has stimulated 4. What kind of fixtures do customers suggest to use to stimulate the vitality of private economy; Measures such as strengthening the transformation of shanty towns, strengthening environmental protection and accelerating the construction of infrastructure such as railways have boosted confidence in investment related industries; Deregulation of loan interest rates, reducing the tax burden on small and micro enterprises, expanding information consumption, supporting the development of the real economy and promoting the steady growth of imports and exports have improved the operating environment and development expectations of enterprises

at the same time, China's large enterprises are generally running smoothly, laying the foundation for the moderate recovery of manufacturing PMI, especially the small and medium-sized enterprises have received more and more policy support. In recent months, the state has further strengthened its support for small and micro enterprises from the aspects of tax incentives, special material certification, and the gradual popularization of financial support, clean-up fees, and government procurement among domestic material suppliers. Moreover, from August 1, the pilot of replacing business tax with value-added tax was expanded nationwide, and 6million small and micro enterprises were temporarily exempted from value-added tax and business tax

the index rebounded slightly, and economic growth stabilized.

facts have proved that the state has introduced a series of measures to stabilize growth, which successfully stabilized market expectations and led to a slight rebound in manufacturing PMI in July against the season. The anti seasonal rise of PMI in July occurred only after the introduction of the 4trillion policy and the implementation of active monetary policy support in 2009

moreover, since 2005, the PMI index of China's manufacturing industry has increased for the second time against the season, indicating that from mid June, the package of investment, export and consumption promotion policies of the executive meeting of the State Council have raised the optimistic expectations of the manufacturing industry, indicating that the rebound of the manufacturing industry is mainly due to the expected improvement brought by the fine-tuning of national policies

in fact, since the beginning of this year, as China's economic growth has fallen slightly, market expectations have continued to decline, in contrast to the actual economic trend. However, the manufacturing PMI index rebounded slightly in July, indicating that economic growth will stabilize in the future. Moreover, after entering the second half of the year, the market's expectation of economic stability gradually increased. With the support of macroeconomic policies, market demand is generally stable. From the PMI new export order index in July, export demand is expected to recover in the future

relevant people pointed out that although the new manufacturing PMI data in July is optimistic, it does not mean that the economy has stabilized and rebounded, and the future depends on the comprehensive data. In July, China's electricity consumption, transportation, credit and other data are still going down. Only when consumption, industrial added value, finance, transportation and other data are gradually improving, can we say that the economy has stabilized and rebounded

according to the forecast, due to the weakening of destocking, China's manufacturing PMI stabilized in the short term. The main reasons are: in July, the PMI rose from 50.1 in June to 50.3, better than market expectations; Production and new orders have rebounded slightly, which is related to the high temperature weather, and also shows that the short-term low demand has stabilized; The sharp rebound in purchase prices will help ease the pressure of destocking; The employment index has rebounded significantly, so it should be difficult to introduce stimulus policies; The PMI sample changes this year. There was a sharp rebound in the off-season in May, and the sustainability of the off-season stabilization in July needs to be observed

however, on the whole, although the manufacturing PMI in July exceeded expectations, the economy was still weak and the total demand was depressed, especially the problem of economic operation, which was still highlighted in the fact that the contradiction of overcapacity had not been significantly alleviated. It is estimated that the manufacturing industry will continue to slow down and the capacity reduction will continue in the future economic situation. Moreover, the PMI of small enterprises is below the critical point, and they still face many difficulties and problems, such as lack of funds, rapid growth of labor costs, backward technology, and so on. We need to continue to strengthen policy support

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